Fujimori or Sanchez? Peru vote marks 10 years of turmoil

Nine presidents in 10 years — the figure speaks volumes about the current state of Peruvian politics.

On Sunday, voters will return to the polls. This time, they will choose between Keiko Fujimori, leader of the conservative Popular Force party, and Roberto Sanchez, the candidate for the left-wing Together for Peru. Whoever prevails at the ballot, Peruvians will vote in a climate of deep distrust of institutions, political fragmentation and growing concern over insecurity.

For many observers, the central question is not only who will win the presidency, but whether Peru will be able to break out of the cycle of political crises that has characterized its past decade.

The first round revealed the weakness of Peru's political system. Keiko Fujimori advanced to the runoff with just 17% of the vote, while Roberto Sanchez secured around 12%, highlighting a fragmented political landscape in which 35 presidential candidates competed. The result illustrates the extent to which both finalists lack broad support and enter the second round amid a profound crisis of representation.

For Alonso Cardenas, a political science professor at Antonio Ruiz de Montoya University, the roots of the problem run deeper than a simple electoral contest.

"There is widespread discrediting of the ruling class," Cardenas told DW. According to the political scientist, the widespread public rejection extends to Congress, the presidency and the judiciary. "It is a very serious process of implosion within the system of political representation."

Johanna Pieper, a researcher at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies, agrees that the election reflects a long-running crisis. "People are simply not happy or satisfied. They have no confidence in politics, the government, or Congress," Pieper told DW. She also points to a society divided between Lima and historically marginalized regions, particularly the Andean highlands.

Fujimori and her father's legacy

Keiko Fujimori once again places the country's best-known — and most polarizing — political figure at the center of the campaign. She is the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori, who ruled Peru between 1990 and 2000.

The movement known as Fujimorismo has shaped Peruvian politics for decades. Its supporters point to economic stabilization and the fight against the Maoist guerrilla group Shining Path. Critics, however, highlight deep-seated authoritarian tendencies, corruption scandals and serious human rights violations during her father's time in office.

Political scientist Fernando Tuesta recently wrote on X that "the only constant over the past 15 years has been Keiko Fujimori, who has made politics and elections revolve around herself and Fujimorismo."

According to Tuesta, the strength of Fujimorismo is undeniable, but so is the resistance it generates. For Pieper, that opposition remains a decisive factor. "I don't think it has diminished," she says of anti-Fujimorismo sentiment. She notes that Fujimori received only 17% of the vote in the first round and has already lost three previous runoffs. "Many Peruvians are aware that Keiko Fujimori's party has contributed to the country's instability."

On economic policy, Fujimori stands for continuity and the defense of Peru's existing market-based model. At the same time, Pieper warns of illiberal positions and the risk of rising political influence over the judiciary, as well as entrenched corruption networks.

If she wins, she could rely on strong allies in Congress. That would likely strengthen her ability to govern, but it would not automatically reduce social tensions.

Sanchez: A lesser-known challenger

Roberto Sanchez is far less well-known. The candidate of the alliance Together for Peru has noticeably shifted his political stance over the course of the campaign.

According to Pieper, Sanchez initially called for a greater role for the state in the economy, criticized the neoliberal economic model and advocated drafting a new constitution. He has since adopted a much more moderate tone, emphasizing macroeconomic stability, central bank independence and backing private investment.

Cardenas sees parallels with former President Ollanta Humala, who also embraced a more pragmatic course after winning office. He considers a sharp shift to the left unlikely.

However, the institutional obstacles facing Sanchez would be considerable. Congress remains a key center of power and is dominated by conservative forces and Fujimorismo. Pieper therefore believes there is a high risk that a Sanchez presidency would be politically weakened and forced to rely on fragile alliances to govern.

Focus on security, organized crime

While political polarization is a big talking point, it is everyday problems that concern most citizens.

"Insecurity is currently the population's main concern," Pieper said. Both candidates will need to provide solutions to rising crime and the expansion of organized criminal networks.

Cardenas paints a bleak picture, explaining that the state is increasingly losing control in many regions. Extortion, contract killings and illegal gold mining are spreading, while essential public services such as healthcare and education are deteriorating.

The two candidates could also set different foreign policy priorities for the nation.

According to Cardenas, Sanchez would likely seek closer cooperation with the left-leaning governments of Brazil and Mexico.

Fujimori, in contrast, would likely rely more heavily on conservative governments in the region as well as the United States. She would probably back closer ties to Washington and to politicians such as Argentina’s President Javier Milei or Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa.

Pieper agrees, saying that cooperation with the US under Donald Trump would be more likely under Fujimori than under Sanchez.

Election will not automatically resolve political crisis

Regardless of the outcome, few experts expect a rapid stabilization of the country.

Pieper points out that Peru's parties have been weakly institutionalized for decades. If political dissatisfaction continues to grow, even more radical anti-establishment candidates could gain importance in the future.

The next president will have to do far more than win an election: They will have to try to rebuild trust in institutions and give new legitimacy to a political system that, for many Peruvians, has long since lost touch with their everyday lives.

This article was originally written in Spanish.