This transcript was automatically generated.
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Daniel
Hello and welcome to the Dip. It is your essential briefing for many stories that cross borders. I am recovering from a cold and I'm Daniel, someone else who is just recovering off one.
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Kassandra
Yeah. I might
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Kassandra
have got it from someone in this room, but
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Kassandra
I'm Kassandra. Later on, we're going to be headed to space and asking
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Kassandra
whether Europe is ready to take on not only the US, but also China when it comes to cutting edge space technology. But first,
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Kassandra
that's.
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Daniel
What happens when you share a podcast studio. You get a bit, you share more than just conversation. That's it. And the US is clubbing together with other nations to make a critical mineral alliance. The reason? Well, to counter China's dominance, of course. But can the West really overcome its dependance on China?
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Kassandra
And when we have China
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Kassandra
questions, we go to our China analyst, Clifford Coonan, who has more with us right now.
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Daniel
So, Clifford, what is this alliance all about? I mean, China's name didn't come up in the government fact sheet, which is all about the alliance. But, yeah, it is really the elephant in the room here.
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Clifford
Yeah, yeah, well, these critical minerals, they're essential for use in semiconductors, in your iPhones, in all of your various, in car manufacturers that they're just used as components to make components for so many different
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Clifford
things.
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Kassandra
That people take every day. Part of everyday life. Yeah.
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Clifford
it's exactly it's something on most people, you know, you know, most of them come from China.
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Clifford
China has got the best absolute, industry for producing critical minerals and raw, rare, rare earths. So, so basically that means that when the US, for example, instigated, the trade war with trade tariffs, China was just able to say, okay, we're keeping we can't have our our economy, can't have our, critical minerals. So, so basically the Trump administration caved.
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Clifford
So they secluded their, their bargaining chip for the Chinese. And with this in mind, the West is suddenly told, well, we need to do something about this and we need to secure our own supply chain, and we have to make sure we have our own critical minerals. Nice. Nice to see a lot of people going to Africa.
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Clifford
Have seen a lot of people going to, South America looking for people from the West looking for their own resources, but then recently got assassinated. Marco Rubio, in the US, have sort of decided that they want to, to form some kind of Western alliance where they will they will all secure, the supply of, of rare, rare earths.
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Clifford
And then the big thing thinking behind this is because Donald Trump is going to China in April, and he wants to have something big that, that he can deliver. So, so the expectation is that they will come up with this alliance of, of all these countries, with, with the rare earths, and critical minerals by, by that time, which, as we know from all of these trade agreements, you know, they just don't happen that quick.
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Clifford
So that's basically the background. And it's kind of kind of an interesting idea actually. And and maybe with a different administration, it would be, you know, you know, it would be sort of more credible. It's just everyone feeling a little bit flattered at the moment. I mean, even thinking about this is exhausting, you know, because we just just had so many, like, agonies and for us and then suddenly you come around and say, we want to be your friend, you know, you know, so it's just, it's it's it's a pretty challenging prospect.
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Daniel
So what we've seen is a lot of European leaders say recently, Clifford, that they want more sovereignty. We saw that in Davos at the World Economic Forum. Even a mark Carney from Canada, the Prime Minister said pretty much the same thing. And yet he's been to, to China to, to make deals.
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Daniel
Keir Starmer from the UK has been to China to make deals. Of course, the complicated thing which I want you to kind of unravel here is just going and saying, we're going to do some business with China isn't necessarily itself a bad that you can't cut off all ties all of a sudden overnight. No one's really expecting that.
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Daniel
Where's the balance in all of this? On the one hand, building up this alliance, to, have more sovereignty and on the other hand, doing business deals with China.
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Clifford
Well, it's it's interesting. I mean, let's just take our minds back a few years, say 20 years when China was starting to emerge and you have these trade delegations that would go to China with a head of state, and the German chancellor would go once, sometimes even twice a year.
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Clifford
They would come with, these little listening, shining, fantastic industrial products that that China lapped up. And they would make billion dollar, billion dollar trade deals. They buy, you know, you know, engines, they buy technology, they buy all of this sort of stuff. And and then the the European leader would read out his list of, human rights issues and studied hard and the Chinese would not.
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Clifford
And that was it. And, and, you know, you know, the economy just grew China. China then took they all part of the deal. There was technology transfer. They were required to give insight into how the technology worked, which which helped trying to build up this incredible industrial story that is China now. I mean, it's it's hard catching up on the West on many, many high tech from that hasn't had hasn't happened yet.
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Clifford
But it really is quite an incredible story as we all know. So, so, so suddenly when these Western users arrived that was what was really interesting, looking at Keir Starmer and looking at, you know, Macron even, you know, you know, how the attitude has changed because China just doesn't need them anymore. What it what it does is it sees a customer and and that's different.
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Clifford
That's a complete shift because China has so suddenly it's you're has become a way of setting the market. It's because the U.S. is basically closing. I mean, it's about a half $1 trillion worth of exports. It goes to the EU from China. Last year, in the US, it was it was nearly half that and it had dropped by.
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Clifford
It was about 280 billion. And that was down from 404, 430 billion or something in that direction. So, so you can sort of see that it's a real you know, it's it's a major, major change in things. And the other the other thing about the EU leaders going on their own, first of all, China doesn't you need them.
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Clifford
It also sees a way to to kind of divide the EU a little bit because a lot of people are seeing the a lot of the bigger nations, see the EU, China as a, as a strategic competitor. And you don't hear that language so much now from the big EU countries. But, but you are seeing divisions in how the EU reacts because China really only worries about the EU when, when its dealing with the bloc.
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Clifford
You know, you know, like likes big stuff is how these, how blocs work, you know, and then when you've got, you know, Ireland and the Finns and okay, I know the UK isn't in the EU anymore, but in Europe anyway.
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Daniel
But the UK is part of this alliance, this critical minerals ally.
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Clifford
Exactly.
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Daniel
The US exactly that that fits into that whole modus operandi that if we club together, then China is going to find it more difficult to divide and rule.
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Clifford
Yeah, yeah. And it's, it's interesting just to sort of shift perspective a bit over to this, you know, this U.S idea, about critical minerals. They're also trying this impacts city cop, which is sort of again, an alliance to, to combat China's increasing dominance in the, in the, in semiconductors.
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Clifford
As, as the Treasury secretary mentioned, a Davos, I think you're right. You're saying the the the the the, 97% of the high end semiconductor chips are made in Taiwan, and this was possibly one of the most, the biggest weaknesses in the global economy, because if the suddenly if the situation where change where the USSR for China to invade Taiwan, then you know, you know, suddenly you're going to have a massive, you know, rebalancing of global power.
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Clifford
And he's also said the same thing about critical minerals. You know, he said that China's dominance is extremely dangerous. I mean, he's talked about his own state, South Carolina, where they they've started to do critical minerals again. And he reckons that they're going to be able to, you know, you know, they'll be up and running within two years.
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Clifford
So so this is a whole you balancing. I mean it's a real place where the geopolitics and the economics really meet because, you know, you know, where previously military muscle was, how you kind of backed up, how you backed up your, your ambitions, your diplomatic ambitions, your political ambitions. Now it seems to be raw materials. It's buying power, it's imports, exports, it's investment.
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Clifford
You know, it's all these these things. I think that, you know, you know, they often talk about sanctions being as being sort of choke points, you know, that you can, you know, you don't really need to use your army anymore, although it helps to have a big one. But are powerful one. But but you can pick back it up with economics.
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Clifford
So I think it's a very interesting way all of these, these, these things are emerging right now.
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Kassandra
But it's interesting too, because so many of these things are related. If you want to have the newest defensive gear, smart weapons and so on, you need these raw materials to make it work, right? You've hinted at this a little bit clearer, but I'm wondering, in your view, how dependent is Europe on China?
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Clifford
Well,
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Clifford
this is this is a really, really interesting point that the problem for for Europe now, Germany is Germany. I mean, we're in Germany and Germany is a very good example, I think biggest economy in Europe. You have you have Friedrich, who said to be quite skeptical about
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Clifford
China, the.
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Daniel
Chances going Germany for those who the.
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Clifford
Chancellor of Germany, sorry, the chancellor of Germany and he's
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Clifford
he's he's visiting, he's visiting very shortly. And he's going to go to China very shortly. It's kind of wondering what he's going to do because because basically you have you have these big, big German car companies and you have these big German companies, these big German industrial units that have got a lot of political influence.
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Clifford
And they're they're had heavily have heavily invested in China to the, to the point that they're going to invest even more in China, and they're going to start sending things back to Europe. And that's how they hope to secure their future. But that that's very bad for Germany's industrial base. And also these small and medium sized firms who can't afford to do these kind of investments.
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Clifford
They're they're really they, they, they, they're, they're struggling and they're worried and they don't have the same sort of level of political influence because this some some people you talk to, as they say, this could mean the eradication of Germany's industrial base. I mean, I mean, when you see customer going to, you know, you know, from from the UK where they have their their industrial base has been eroded over years.
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Clifford
But, you know, Germany still has had has a really strong industrial base. And, and it's a big, big chunk of the economy. So if that starts coming under threats, it's a real sign of them that, that, you know, it could be very, very bad for Germany. So I so I think that the challenge for him is to try and balance this need to get the investment.
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Clifford
And, you know, to have a good trading relation with, China. But but on the other hand, it needs to protect its industrial base. And you're, you're hearing a lot more now from Europe, a real realization that that short term people want China just to have this sort of it's almost like a default setting that used to go into China making making, you know, selling out of aircraft engines and coming away with a couple of billion,
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Clifford
you know, not but that
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Clifford
not happening anymore because China's making its own aircraft engines and what it's doing, and it's making them a lot cheaper than in Europe.
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Clifford
And it's and it's selling. It's going to start selling back to Europe. And, and that's a real, real
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Clifford
threat.
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Kassandra
Yeah. I want to follow up on this because because you you make an interesting point here. It reminds me of when Germany was forced to decouple some of its economic relations with Russia. Right. That was a very difficult winter here in Germany, because of how reliant Germany was on Russian fossil fuel. So I'm wondering, you know, given how easy it is for Germany and other European countries, to turn to China, like we've been saying, what would happen if there was some geopolitical event that occurred and Europe or Germany or any other European country was forced to decouple from China quite suddenly.
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Clifford
So this is this is a very real threat.
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Clifford
China is backing Russia in the war in Ukraine. And you don't hear any mention of that in an uneasy statements from the European leaders. There's no single word about it. And and if China hates Taiwan, then that's going to be a real problem for European companies because they're so heavily invested.
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Daniel
And so I think what a lot of people are saying is that China trying to catch up when it comes to the latest and greatest, silicon, the chips that, power AI in this kind of thing means that once they've captured the ability not just to, design them, but to make them, then that gives them free rein to do what they want with Taiwan and to cut everyone else, from is that the alarmist scenario or is that the situation that we're talking about here?
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Clifford
Well, it isn't a it's certainly an alarming scenario. But but and the thing is, we we always keep thinking that China's, you know, you know, that it's going to take China longer. Are you underestimate China quite a lot.
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Clifford
I think it's going to take it longer to do things. And and we see that particularly in chip manufacturing, it's you know, you know, we've been told to cut off certain high end chips that they won't be able to replicate them. And then while we close out something that, you know, it's not quite as good, but but they, they, they're very, very defensive focus.
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Clifford
You know, it's as good as they need right now. I mean meanwhile they're also building for the future. So that that becomes, that could become a real problem. And yeah, the, the Taiwan scenario is there's, there's so many mixed signals from, from the US administration because ultimately this is about what the US does, because in Europe we respond, it's safe if they take it like there's a trade if, if there's if they if they do, if they could cut off Taiwan.
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Clifford
What what what what would happen then? I would have to react. And it would react with, with, with or, you know, whatever tariffs and whatever tools are available to it. But the U.S. would probably have to respond in some way, but we just don't know what they do. I mean, I mean, that's another one hand is talking about, various people in the administration and Rubio included that who's the, foreign their, their foreign minister.
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Clifford
That's the secretary of state. He's basically saying that we will, you know, we will stand. We will still stand by Taiwan, but but with, with with with the president and the people around the president, you get very different answers at times with, as you know, you know, with the Trump, you know, you see what he does and not what he says.
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Clifford
You know, it. But and and, you know, he has been backing he has been supportive of Taiwan. But on the other hand, he doesn't want, you know, you know, he wants to Taiwan to buy more weapons and he wants to, you know, so you can you not see the pressure. And he wants Taiwan to build semiconductor plants and they're doing and then then increasingly he'll talk about maybe take the American company.
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Clifford
The U.S. takes a stake in the in the Taiwan semiconductor industry. So there's a whole lot of things happening there. And, and all of them are contributing to a sort of, like a nervy geopolitical situation.
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Daniel
Yeah. But I mean, in the end, China needs the US needs Europe as customers because it's massively dependent on exports, despite the fact that it's tried to shift to a more consumption driven model to power its economy. It hasn't got there yet. So none of this is going to happen.
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Clifford
Yeah. I mean, I mean, that's a very important point. I mean, China, it's a domestic, it's still got this property crisis and our property accounted for 40% of the economy. Then then suddenly the real estate disaster happened. And that's a section of the of of your your economy is is, you know, in big, big trouble.
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Clifford
Never say secondary places with Texas Tech are probably going to be 50% of the economy. So so you can see there's a shortfall there. So, so to make up that shortfall, this this is where it's sending all these goods overseas. This is this is actually another interesting point really related to this is that when we when we talk about Western Western dependance on China, we've got the west.
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Clifford
West has also become dependent on Chinese goods. You know, you know, it's almost like a political thing. You know, you know, people if people if you're if you're voter base in in, you know, you know, in America or in southern Germany or whatever, have their patio furniture that would have this political impact, you know, you know, so so it's just it's kind of it works in so many in so many ways.
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Clifford
But, yeah, yeah, this, this whole probably a lot of the, the doom scenarios maybe are overplayed. I mean it's good to see to, to to game these things out. But ultimately China does because, because it can boost its domestic economy without exports, because Chinese people aren't spending any money if they're spending money because they can't run for property anymore.
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Clifford
So so you've got a lot of them. They've got the political issues. I mean, I mean, obviously the Chinese economy is still doing is still doing very well, but it, it's still like very, very heavily reliant on exports and that export model which, which means that, you know, you know, if it if it loses that the economy could be in trouble.
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Kassandra
You know, Clifford, I'm curious because it seems like China can pick on politically sensitive European sectors. We're talking here, maybe farmers or food or patio furniture like you were talking about. If they can pick on these sectors one by one, how sovereign is EU trade policy
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Kassandra
in practice?
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Daniel
Yeah, things like the, the, the, the dairy tariffs that we've seen announced all of this kind of stuff, little things that you can just go for one industry at a time.
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Clifford
Yeah, yeah. I think, I think that that's really interesting. I mean, what China has is this incredible industrial policy that it's had for years. It's just it it can do whatever it wants. The government can say we want to do this and they can just, you know, you know, for example, take electric vehicles every province in China was was told by the central government that they have to have have an electric vehicle company because that was going to be the way forward.
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Clifford
They all built. You've got, you know, you know, you had scores of electric vehicle brands competing with each other. It's not going to
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Clifford
work.
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Kassandra
I mean, some were very successful, but then there were a lot of minnows that were eaten up by the guppies and bigger fish as they were all growing.
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Clifford
Exactly. And that involved huge amounts of investment.
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Clifford
That's all built on debt. So, you know, you know, at the same time, it still means that they know, you know, you know, they're dominating the EV market. So I think same thing with wind power with is very, very sectors that can do that. So just have this ability and then then so you know the other corner, the ring you've got you've got your Europe with, with there's, there's, I mean people have been coming.
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Clifford
Mario Draghi has been saying that your meeting needs to get its act together on trade policy. And Austrian policy is is just not it's so splintered and fragmented. We've had so much unilateral take on countries going it alone.
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Daniel
Clifford Europe is, world beating champion when it comes to regulation and bureaucracy.
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Clifford
Well, absolutely. I mean,
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Clifford
and, and it's striking that every year it gets better and better at introducing more
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Clifford
regulations.
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Daniel
Of course we don't. But I mean, it seems like, you know, still, Europe is far ahead when it comes to its, its industry in specific areas. There are areas, of course, where China has managed to to catch up. We've seen we've talked about it endlessly when it comes to cars, for example, but there's still a lot of specific stuff.
00:19:12:10 - 00:19:43:06
Daniel
And, the types of research and industry which, Europe seems to do very well. Should we be worried about that too? Is that, something that China can, can target and therefore see that as a weak point, in the EU is all just going to get rolled up by China at some point or, you know, is it the case that Europe still has some massively strong strategic pillars which are, somewhat immune from, China targeting them in a trade tiff or whatever it might be?
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Clifford
Yeah. I mean, this is this is for you. I mean, Europe is still very strong industrially. And, I mean, it's a famously half empty, you know, pessimistic place. I mean, I mean, people have been predicting the end of the German economy for decades now. And, you know, and it's it's it's still I mean, it has, you know, has ups and downs, but generally, you know, Europe is when, when, when, when people are in here, it still feels like, like, you know, you know, there's, there's a lot of economic growth that has happened here that is now that added the UK economy, you know, that has missed the boat on things like the IT
00:20:15:18 - 00:20:25:22
Clifford
industry. But but you know, you know, yeah, I can't really think of very many I, very many sort of online champions. You know, Spotify is
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Clifford
is one example, but from Sweden, from Sweden. Yeah. So,
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Clifford
but but it's just. Yeah, yeah. It has missed the boat on a couple of things. Very, very conservative, very slow moving.
00:20:36:22 - 00:20:58:19
Clifford
But but at the same time it's back to a certain solidity, you know. You know. So I think it's, it's wrong to write you're a bull and, and, and you can see that, you know, you know, that it is, you know, I think bureaucracy. But but I don't want to put that in there, but, and China is, you know, you know, it's it's very hard to know how long term this situation in China is.
00:20:58:19 - 00:21:00:23
Clifford
And, you know, you know, I mean, I mean,
00:21:00:23 - 00:21:17:17
Daniel
But China is China's a massive bureaucracy as well. So how is that, how is that different? How does it how is one bureaucracy, seemingly fast moving and is able to just pile into sectors and dominate them? And obviously Europe is the opposite kind of bureaucracy.
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Clifford
Absolutely. That's also a very important point.
00:21:20:08 - 00:21:38:21
Clifford
So China is a massive bureaucracy, you know, you know, every company has to have a Communist Party member on the board. You've got all these people who should just, you know, you know, they just dogma. They just do Marxist-Leninist readings. They, they, you know, you know, they they, they act in the party's interests. But they, they don't actually do anything.
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Clifford
And so you do have a huge sector of the economy that you never really remember, first of all, because it's incredibly secretive. And that's not the story that the state media is going to tell. And, and I think that's been modified by, you know, you know, the, the growth in China. I mean, I think sometimes it's easy to forget that the economy is still growing, even if the data is, unreliable.
00:22:00:18 - 00:22:20:10
Clifford
It's still been growing steadily for, for a long, long time. So, so in some ways that kind of masks it this, this, this layer of unproductive bureaucracy, which is even less productive than, you know, you can can only presume that in Brussels, you were for doing, you know, you know, doing more than, a lot of the guys sitting on the
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Clifford
board of these small town councils, which I hope one would hope.
00:22:24:03 - 00:22:26:17
Kassandra
Yeah. Clifford, I want to talk about that because you say, you know, the Chinese
00:22:26:17 - 00:22:43:05
Kassandra
economy is still growing and I can anticipate the hatred that we're going to get in the comments already. You know, there's always people commenting like, you know, you China saw 5% growth last quarter. Germany wishes which you know true Germany Germany does wish we talked a little bit about the, export surplus.
00:22:43:05 - 00:23:02:17
Kassandra
It looks like there was a record $1.2 trillion worth of export surplus last year. I think I have that right. Correct me if I don't. And I'm wondering, you know, how much of a buffer can that create for China because less and less of it is going to the US. It seems like less is going to Europe, if I remember correctly.
00:23:02:22 - 00:23:15:10
Kassandra
So with exports to other countries outside of Europe and excluding the US, Africa, Southeast Asia, is there more of a customer base? To bring back this analogy we were talking about earlier for China?
00:23:15:10 - 00:23:24:11
Clifford
Yeah, yeah. It's interesting. It's it's a massive figure and it, a lot of it is the fact that they were able to take this huge drop in
00:23:24:11 - 00:23:26:22
Clifford
us, in the US business and make
00:23:26:22 - 00:23:29:11
Clifford
up for it in other areas of the world.
00:23:29:13 - 00:23:50:19
Clifford
Is, is incredibly impressive. On one level, but it does mask. I mean, I mean for like a lot of people say in the African countries, for example, you know, they're getting cheap Chinese EVs and Chinese goods that are much cheaper that they can do themselves. So so it's it's hitting industries in, in a lot of the emerging countries as well.
00:23:50:21 - 00:24:08:00
Clifford
And there's, there's a lot of political pressure being put on security in Southeast Asia and on those, to, to, to take Chinese goods and, but, but a certain point that, that these, these markets, you know, you know, they're, they're not it's not as good a customer as the United States. I mean, they just don't have as much money.
00:24:08:00 - 00:24:30:19
Clifford
And so so it could be that, you know, you know, this was political decision. And a lot of, a lot of economic decisions are essentially political decisions in China because the Communist Party, that runs everything. So, in this case, you know, the order went out that that exports, you know, you know, the economy has to grow by this target of 5%, which it did.
00:24:30:21 - 00:24:49:04
Clifford
But but how long can I keep going? And this is something, you know, I just it's going to be comments about this is about me saying that, you know, I'm calling I'm constantly predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy, which I really haven't. But, you know, you know, that's just just the, the nature of the game.
00:24:49:04 - 00:24:51:14
Clifford
But but it, it does face structural
00:24:51:14 - 00:24:53:13
Clifford
challenges.
00:24:53:15 - 00:25:15:23
Daniel
Well, I want to get to some of those comments, actually, Clifford, let's say let's say, we move on to part two now because, I was looking at, some of the videos you do, obviously a lot of, reporting on China, for business here at Daewoo. And, you always get a lot of, viewer feedback and.
00:25:15:23 - 00:25:16:15
Kassandra
From your fans.
00:25:16:16 - 00:25:38:03
Daniel
From your fans. And I just wanted to read some of these out to you and, have you, respond to them, because I think we can kind of anticipate some of the response to this video as well. So, let's see here one comment. Why not interview someone from the China side? China's very disciplined in pursuing their economic goals and achieving them.
00:25:38:09 - 00:25:49:03
Daniel
So, yeah. Clifford, why aren't you talking to someone from from China, from an economic. Well, Chinese economist who's there? Get the state side of things.
00:25:49:03 - 00:25:59:13
Clifford
Well, well, the problem is because people in China is that, you kind of get it's very, very difficult to get objective views within China because people are not allowed to there is no freedom of expression as such.
00:25:59:13 - 00:26:23:18
Clifford
So every everyone has to toe the party line. So there is really no value in, in speaking out to people because they can't really express themselves freely. Which it's one thing that for all the that's happened in the U.S, for example, in recent in recent months, you know, people are still free to mostly free to say what they think about things that not doesn't exist in China.
00:26:23:20 - 00:26:41:06
Clifford
Some of the people that we talk to could also get into serious trouble for free expressing their views. And, and the data is there to, to serve the party, you know, you know, it's it's it's not it isn't really, you know, it's not it's not an objective thing. It's basically used to, to serve the party.
00:26:41:06 - 00:26:59:04
Clifford
So when you speak to, to people in China, sometimes it's not all that I would love to speak to more people from China and, and and you off the record, you you get some really good readings. People don't know exactly how the economy is working. They know exactly what is going on. Unfortunately, during the meeting, it's very hard.
00:26:59:04 - 00:27:08:22
Clifford
You can report that sources say, you know, you know, something always works well in print, but it doesn't really work well in a visual medium. So. So, I think you're sort of restricted in that,
00:27:08:22 - 00:27:09:24
Clifford
but, yeah.
00:27:09:24 - 00:27:21:17
Daniel
So that of course, what what works, what what fits the party line one day might not fit the party line the next. And suddenly you fall from from favor, as we've seen with many, big business leaders in China, too.
00:27:21:19 - 00:27:22:01
Kassandra
Yeah,
00:27:22:01 - 00:27:22:14
Kassandra
there's.
00:27:22:16 - 00:27:22:22
Clifford
That's.
00:27:22:22 - 00:27:26:03
Clifford
A really good point. So just just quickly on that. Just. Jack Ma
00:27:26:03 - 00:27:37:11
Clifford
said he criticized state banks, at a banking event in Shanghai on the bond and in the, you know, there was people there from, that a lot of senior business leaders there, and he was gone.
00:27:37:11 - 00:27:38:18
Clifford
He was gone for a year.
00:27:38:18 - 00:27:39:19
Kassandra
Yeah. He's completely.
00:27:39:20 - 00:27:40:07
Clifford
Taken away.
00:27:40:07 - 00:27:40:23
Kassandra
Disappeared?
00:27:41:09 - 00:27:41:23
Clifford
Yeah, yeah.
00:27:41:23 - 00:27:54:04
Clifford
yeah. So that's that's why you can't really speak to people in China because it's not it's not a great environment. It's not a good environment for, for for speaking there. But it isn't. It isn't because you don't want to or anything. It's it's really just the situation that we're
00:27:54:04 - 00:27:54:13
Clifford
in.
00:27:54:15 - 00:28:16:13
Kassandra
Yeah. There's another comment here from Cool Things collection. And they say the ignorance and arrogance of the Germans towards China is shocking. You can't even ask the Chinese to find out what exactly the plan is about and how rigorous, scientific and scientific and reliable the five year plan is. And it has been successfully executed countless times in history, helping China to develop into a global power at the fastest speed in the world.
00:28:16:19 - 00:28:27:14
Kassandra
D.W. is literally like, because Germany doesn't have a plan and China is doing something different from us. So this is bad. But you've looked into the most recent five year plan. How about you, Clifford?
00:28:27:14 - 00:28:44:21
Clifford
Yeah, yeah, I mean, it's I mean, there are good things in it, you know, I mean, it gives us an idea about what's going on in China and how decisions are being made because there is no real information. You have to kind of you use what more little things there are like, like, like a five year plan to get an idea of what the government is planning to do.
00:28:44:23 - 00:28:53:12
Clifford
Bureau, which is the, you know, the Ronnie who, who can kind of run the country. And then then of course, the standing Committee, which is XI Jinping and the, you know, the other
00:28:53:12 - 00:28:55:09
Clifford
main leaders. You know, we don't know what the.
00:28:55:09 - 00:29:11:20
Kassandra
Behind the scenes to it, but I feel like whenever any of these things are coming out, we're turning to you like, Clifford, help us read the tea leaves here because what comes out is often, like, very opaque. And I'm turning to you and you're trying to explain to us, like, why this is a big deal. And like, it's not easy to read.
00:29:12:01 - 00:29:30:14
Clifford
no, it's not. And the domain can get that out of it I think is I mean, I mean, I think they can become a lot more slick in the last few, like, like at the moment we can see this is really this focus on, on, on tech, and on on building, you know, you know, going up the value chain when it comes to, to tech, I think, I think that's very important.
00:29:30:14 - 00:29:50:23
Clifford
And, you know, you know, the thing that was very, very much is the Soviet era sort of thing. There were, you know, you know, and you because, because that tradition in, in the Soviet Union of having of criminal, not criminology, where you had to sort of read between the lines to find out what was going on, you know, you know, and it's a bit like that in China, too.
00:29:51:00 - 00:30:05:21
Clifford
You know, because you didn't have any advocates interviews. But but very, very, very rarely because it's interviews and, you know, it's, it's not an open it's a black box. And so, you know, you have to kind of use these documents to get to find a way. But you don't I mean, I mean, they are useful to that extent.
00:30:06:01 - 00:30:26:08
Clifford
But they're, they're, they're talking about I mean, I mean, I've never not going to meet their targets, for example, they're economic targets. So in in terms of how you use the data, it's it's it's it's not particularly indicative. But in this one, actually in the current one, they, they've lowered their economic forecast with band of, of between 4 and 25.5% growth, growth in the economy and GDP.
00:30:26:10 - 00:30:31:19
Clifford
So that's a sign that the economy I'm this year was last year was 5%.
00:30:31:24 - 00:30:33:11
Clifford
Right. So that's, that's
00:30:33:11 - 00:30:50:10
Clifford
lowering of this essentially a lowering of the growth forecast. Now, now in some ways this is a year or two, a lot of things are based on this, this political concept of a struggle, which is, you know, an old communist thing that they basically settled over targets and you and you reach you, you exceed that target.
00:30:50:10 - 00:30:52:04
Clifford
And so you've won the struggle.
00:30:52:04 - 00:30:52:17
Clifford
It's a it's.
00:30:52:18 - 00:30:57:02
Kassandra
Party promise and over deliver my opinion. But it's not the way to say it.
00:30:57:04 - 00:30:58:11
Clifford
Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. So
00:30:58:11 - 00:31:12:17
Clifford
you know, that's that's there's also that dimension to it too. But I think, I think you just showed that, that, that difficulty with the domestic economy, as you mentioned earlier, you know, about the people, people not spending and and, and the property market still struggling.
00:31:13:04 - 00:31:29:07
Daniel
Okay. I want to put one kind of more general comment that we always get under our videos to you, or kind of two things. First of all, why are you always hating on China so much? And second of all, why do you ever report about the difficulties of the German economy?
00:31:29:09 - 00:31:32:05
Clifford
Well, but first of all, you know, I,
00:31:32:05 - 00:31:33:08
Clifford
don't I don't hate on China.
00:31:33:08 - 00:31:36:07
Clifford
I mean, I spent a long time living there, and I love China
00:31:36:07 - 00:31:36:21
Clifford
and, you know, it's.
00:31:36:22 - 00:31:38:13
Kassandra
You got your friend China.
00:31:38:13 - 00:31:52:06
Clifford
I did, I did, I did. My dog is a yeah yeah yeah yeah. So yeah he's he's he's our, our you know you know my, my children grew up there and and you know, you know we, we have a very, very strong connection to the country.
00:31:52:08 - 00:32:10:20
Clifford
And, so I, I definitely don't hate on China, but I just think that it's important that China be that we examine China in the same way as we examine other countries. And so so that means working with me. And I think that's our job as journalists. And that kind of feeds into what, you know, you know, how how we do do with Germany.
00:32:10:20 - 00:32:39:10
Clifford
I think if you look at, reporting the German economy, I don't think I think it's very, very balanced. And, and I think the people who make these criticisms, I don't think they, we watch our coverage of the German economy because we certainly don't have a. Yeah. Or, you know, we're not we're not trying to, you know, pick things up or anything like that, you know, I mean, I think it's just very, very balanced assessment of the difficulties that the German economy is facing.
00:32:39:10 - 00:32:58:21
Clifford
And I think I, I know that when I'm talking about China as well, you know, that China has some has made some credible achievements. And it's, you know, you know, this, this, this level of, ingenuity in the tech world, the, the way that industrial policy has, although these are all, all, you know, they're, they're, they're, you know, you can see that they're they're unavoidable.
00:32:58:24 - 00:33:04:03
Clifford
So so, so I hope that that, you know, you know, the comments come up on this that people
00:33:04:03 - 00:33:04:21
Clifford
into account.
00:33:05:02 - 00:33:09:00
Daniel
Yeah. I mean, we're journalists, we're we're cynical. That's in our nature. Right. And so.
00:33:09:01 - 00:33:10:01
Kassandra
Yeah, it's always helpful if.
00:33:10:01 - 00:33:30:05
Daniel
You saw any video from us which was saying, look, this particular country is fine. You don't need to look at it in detail. Don't worry about it. Then I would be concerned, every country, including Germany, including the US or whatever, we're going to say, okay, what are the issues, where are the problems and how do they interact with us and what needs to be done?
00:33:30:07 - 00:33:39:05
Daniel
Those are the big questions of our day. And if we don't report on them, then we're not doing our duty as journalists, to be honest. Well, thank you very much, Clifford, for all of your time today.
00:33:39:07 - 00:33:40:16
Clifford
Yeah. My pleasure.
00:33:42:05 - 00:34:17:10
Unknown
When headlines get louder, we go deeper. Say hello to Berlin briefing. Your guide to Germany's impacts on the world between East and West autocrats and democrats. Germany's whole system is under stress. Politics. Power takes pressure from all sides, and the world around Germany is getting more dangerous. Is democracy glitching? Too much noise, too little clarity. We decode what it means for you from Berlin to right where you are.
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Unknown
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00:34:24:06 - 00:34:30:09
Kassandra
Now on to our next big topic space the final frontier. But we're staying on the theme of
00:34:30:09 - 00:34:30:19
Kassandra
sovereignty.
00:34:30:22 - 00:34:53:11
Daniel
That's right. The European Space Agency received a big boost to its budget, but it's still not enough. I mean, if Starlink, for example, in Europe got switched off overnight, Europe doesn't have an alternative that's at that same level that could just fill the gap. Ariana six, the launcher which sends up our satellites into space. It's behind what the US can do in terms of its launch capabilities.
00:34:53:11 - 00:35:19:04
Daniel
So in short, Europe is vulnerable. You could say Europe is a dependent for sure. But I met up with someone who knows all about this because he's the most important man, in Europe for space. You could say that, said the European Space Agency. Boss. You're safe, ash Badger. And my big question to him was whether Europe is finally seeing space as critical infrastructure.
00:35:19:04 - 00:35:40:17
Daniel
So yourself, Ash Baker, director general of the European Space Agency. Thank you very much for taking the time for us today. A lot of people think of space as exploring the planets, observing the stars, but it's also becoming ever more contested, commercialized and geopolitics. So where does ESA stand in that environment?
00:35:40:20 - 00:36:15:09
Aschbacher
it's true. Space has changed completely over the last couple of years. It's growing very fast. On one side you have very strong commercial actors. Think of Space-X or, Jeff Bezos or with his so Blue Origin company, but also many, many others in the States but also in Europe. So on one side, you get a very strong commercial interest, but also on the other side from a political side, or you see that, politicians, heads of state, heads of government, realizing how important space is for their country, or the continent.
00:36:15:11 - 00:36:36:19
Aschbacher
I'm talking for Europe here. In terms of, the space infrastructure serving daily life of people. I take a few examples, sir. If you wake up in the morning and, you check your weather forecast. This is based on satellite data. About 80% of, the observations made for a weather forecast are based on on on images, on data from satellites.
00:36:36:21 - 00:37:04:00
Aschbacher
Then you take a breakfast or you eat some, some wheat or some bread or whatever. And again, the farmer is using space data to cultivate, the fields to estimate the yield or, eventually, the products have to be, transported from one place to another. You need navigation. That means, navigation systems from space in order to get, the driver or you and me when we come to work or when we go
00:37:04:04 - 00:37:12:11
Daniel
In Europe is particularly strong in those particular areas, in climate, in, these observational satellites, do positional, satellites as.
00:37:12:11 - 00:37:12:20
Aschbacher
Well.
00:37:12:20 - 00:37:26:09
Aschbacher
This is where Europe really has a strength, actually. It is fair to say that Europe is still having the best systems in the world, for navigation, for Earth observation. Also, it's based science. To explore the universe is something that Europe is particularly strong.
00:37:26:10 - 00:37:44:14
Aschbacher
Science on one side. And the technology on the other side. So, yes, Europe, is always a bit put to shade. And, you quite often see, of course, the, the launches or of Falcon nine, which are quite impressive, I have to say. But then the people say, what is Europe doing in this global context? Europe is actually excellent.
00:37:44:16 - 00:38:03:14
Aschbacher
Of course, in Europe we spend much lesser, money on space activities compared to the United States, there's a factor of six in between. So if the United States here on the public side, that means NASA, Space Force and other public entities spend 100. In Europe, we spend 15. In comparison with 15, of course, you can't do the same
00:38:03:17 - 00:38:27:01
Daniel
Yeah, well, I wanted to get into that because you have been given, record funding, over €22 billion over three years. First of all, especially when you compare yourselves to the United States. Is that enough? Because it's not just money going into the space industry through ESA, but through, EU budgets and various other programs. But is that enough?
00:38:27:02 - 00:38:33:24
Daniel
And if so, why did ESA need the extra money when public funding is being cut elsewhere?
00:38:33:24 - 00:38:35:06
Aschbacher
Yeah, it's a very good question.
00:38:35:07 - 00:39:00:11
Aschbacher
In fact, we have negotiated, the, this agreement or I would say the funding proposals with our member states for more than a year, a year and a half, and it's a very intense work we are doing because, we have a very peculiar way of funding, space projects in, in Europe. So, ESA about 20% of our budget comes from member states based on the size of the countries or larger countries pay more smaller countries, less according to their GDP within ESA.
00:39:00:13 - 00:39:29:11
Aschbacher
But 80% is, coming through what we call optional programs. That means it's voluntary funding by member state. Let me take an example. We build up, satellites for, for, planetary monitoring. So for our planet, itself for, greenhouse gases or to support agriculture or farmers, if one of these satellites is being developed, I propose it to the member states, and they can put in zero or a large amount.
00:39:29:13 - 00:39:45:09
Aschbacher
So it's really up to the country to decide how much they want to, to chip in to contribute to the program. So you may ask, why would anybody put money in if you are not, forced to do it, or required to do it? There's a very simple, the reason why countries are doing it.
00:39:45:09 - 00:40:11:24
Aschbacher
Because through these space programs, we are building up their industry. So if their industry is participating in the European projects, they become competitive, they become stronger, they interact with other countries, and they eventually may even export, some of the technology outside Europe as it, as it happened. So we are really, the agency in Europe to build up strength of industry and build up, major space programs through industrial, work.
00:40:11:24 - 00:40:43:02
Aschbacher
That means all the money that is given to me is going back to industry, through competition, minus of cost of running costs of visa. So this is really the way we do it. That's why member states are putting money at that. Sir, you mentioned at €22 billion that have been funded. Fantastic result record, in many perspectives to highest amount ever, 32% more than the previous ministerial, but also the very first time that the amount I proposed as director general of visa has actually been subscribed.
00:40:43:07 - 00:41:11:05
Aschbacher
Normally we get 90% or even even less, so it's really a huge success. In addition, we have also opened, the, the worker visa, the mandate of visa to include defense. And that is supported was a unanimous political decision by all the member states. Unanimously agreed. But also I've proposed to a program that is focused on defense called European Resilience from space, elaborated together with two up in commission.
00:41:11:11 - 00:41:23:05
Aschbacher
And that was oversubscribed because, sir, people can also put more money than what I proposed. I asked for 1.1 billion. We got 1.3 billion. So this clearly shows that this is welcome and fully supported
00:41:23:09 - 00:41:39:15
Daniel
So would you say that now the EU and also, member states fully accept the need to treat space as critical infrastructure? Or is there still more work needed, especially when you look at the budget difference between what Europe has and what America has?
00:41:39:19 - 00:41:40:00
Aschbacher
Okay.
00:41:40:00 - 00:42:02:19
Aschbacher
Let me call it this way. The Bremen Ministerial conference was a huge success. And I would almost call it waking up to Sleeping Beauty. Sleeping Beauty, because the the excellence of our engineering in Europe is is enormous, is really good, is top level. It was a bit sleeping and a bit slow and, maybe a bit undervalued, but now it has really been waking up, and now we have to put it in motion.
00:42:02:19 - 00:42:27:24
Aschbacher
So, yes, this was the very first step of really stepping up, space or in Europe, but because it is so strategic. But and I fully agree with you what you say it is by far not enough. Even with the increase, we got, to use a ministerial conference, which is fantastic. It is still far away from, from the United States, for example, because of the United States is, is stepping up, and investing more and more.
00:42:28:05 - 00:42:48:08
Aschbacher
So we have to not only, catch up, but also really increase in order to make sure that our industry remains competitive, that we are, in the game and we are not thrown out of the race laser, too early because what I really fear is because we have excellent industry still, excellent scientific capabilities still.
00:42:48:10 - 00:43:12:00
Aschbacher
But if we are not really stepping up, we will lose them because they go to Silicon Valley. They, they leave for, Europe, or America. No other companies are, you know, snatching up some of our, European companies. And that's something that is happening already. And I'm always alarmed when I, when I see that because, what we need is, our autonomy, our independence.
00:43:12:00 - 00:43:26:01
Aschbacher
And that's why I'm really, making the case that, it is so strategic. It is so important. More now. Now more than ever, because of defense and security that, we have to invest much more in space than we did
00:43:26:01 - 00:43:26:10
Aschbacher
the past.
00:43:26:10 - 00:43:41:05
Daniel
Well, let's get into this geopolitical side of things a bit more. So there's a long tradition of global space agencies working together, cooperating almost no matter what the situation geopolitically on the ground. Do you see that? That's change and that's becoming much more difficult.
00:43:41:05 - 00:43:58:03
Aschbacher
It is ongoing still. We still have the space station where Russia, the United States, European Space Agency, Japan and Canada, other can together. And that works perfectly fine. It is a place where we have to work together because it cannot, it, we cannot afford that.
00:43:58:03 - 00:44:14:16
Aschbacher
One of the partners pulls out because then the space station doesn't work anymore. So there we have to. And I think it's also good that we do have this. Still, despite all the tensions, down on, on on the, on the, on the soil of, of planet Earth. And I'm not by no means, belittling what's happening. It's, very tragic.
00:44:14:16 - 00:44:41:03
Aschbacher
And it's, it's it's, very, very unhappy situation in which we are, but, I do believe that space has been and further will continue to be a ground where we need to work together for very simple reason, because some of the of the issues are global, I think space debris, everyone is launching satellites. So some nations more, some nations less, but everyone is sharing the space up there.
00:44:41:05 - 00:45:00:05
Aschbacher
If you're not cooperating and knowing which satellite is at the end of its life is probably not anymore functional and therefore not steerable. And therefore could become a space debris and could collide with any other satellite, regardless of where the satellite comes from or who is operating or who has built it. So you have to work together.
00:45:00:05 - 00:45:22:05
Aschbacher
You have no choice. Otherwise the spacecraft will collide and, and you create a mini problems up there. So there are some domains where you cannot not work together that this will need to be reinforced because there again, the level of cooperation is not at the level as it should be. We get more and more spacecraft, launched, almost every single day.
00:45:22:05 - 00:45:43:16
Aschbacher
And, we have increased our number of, of satellites today to more than 10,000. There are predictions, that are quite reliable that by the end of the decade we may reach something close to 100,000. So it's absolutely stunning how many satellites will come into orbit and they have to be managed, the, like SpaceX, also SpaceX, SpaceX has to be managed.
00:45:43:16 - 00:45:45:18
Aschbacher
And yes, everyone has to work together.
00:45:46:05 - 00:45:54:04
Daniel
And so would you say that your job in many ways is to beat the U.S, to beat China in certain strategic areas?
00:45:54:04 - 00:46:18:03
Aschbacher
My job is first and foremost to make sure that Europe has the space infrastructure it needs for its own purpose for, citizens security, for communication and for navigation, for earth observation, for climate change studies, and but also studies around the world, in in order to better understand the development aid to migration and all these issues that are political issues.
00:46:18:03 - 00:46:40:19
Aschbacher
So first and foremost, I have to make sure that we have the space infrastructure that is needed for Europe. Sometimes we do this working with others. And this is something I see very clearly in the last couple of months, literally, where I see that many space nations are coming to me and say, you in Europe, you're very reliable, you're very respected because you have good quality.
00:46:40:21 - 00:47:01:21
Aschbacher
You have a long term vision. We share your vision. We would like to work with you. And I have reinforced, cooperations with, Japan, with South Korea, with India, with the, UAE, with, many other countries. Canada already is a, so-called cooperating state of visa and has increased its budget by a factor for, the last ministerial conference.
00:47:01:21 - 00:47:23:20
Aschbacher
So more and more countries really want to work with us because we are good, reliable, trusted, and a long term stable partner. And ESA is used to work, not only internationally, but with many countries. We are made of 23 nations or member states, and my daily job is to make sure that we find compromises among all these 23 nations.
00:47:23:22 - 00:47:43:16
Aschbacher
But I propose, programs and as you just mentioned before, it has worked very well at the last ministerial because the proposal, which we made has actually been subscribed at very high level. And, yes, international, this DNA, which we have a so, it's as an agency that works. So it brings countries together, also works at a global scale.
00:47:43:19 - 00:48:14:05
Daniel
But there's been a lot of talk, this week, at the World Economic Forum in Davos about the potential for Europe to stand on its own two feet. Not quite a decoupling, but certainly that Europe needs to be able to work in a sovereign manner, wherever it can across all kinds of domains. What do you think that Asia and Europe would struggle with in the space industry if those international connections outside of Europe just vanished overnight due to whatever geopolitical crisis you could imagine?
00:48:14:05 - 00:48:55:04
Aschbacher
If they would vanish, that would certainly cause disruptions and, costs. Therefore, that means, technology that is crucial would need to be built up, with our own means, because today we have, an international dependance. Let me mention the other way around. Also, the United States, by far the largest space nation, having many capabilities and very impressive ones is depending on Europe, for example, in the outermost program, the, Orion capsule is powered by, by the European service module, which means that, if you compare it with a car, it's, the chassis and the car is built by the United States, but the engine comes from
00:48:55:04 - 00:49:14:14
Aschbacher
Europe, but also the air conditioning system. The temperature regulation comes from Europe. So Europe is providing, you know, without the engine, you can't fly there and they can't fly back. So therefore Europe is providing a crucial critical element, of this, NASA led Artemis, sir, Polycom of, of the Orion
00:49:14:24 - 00:49:27:06
Daniel
But I would say that the, the difficulties in geopolitics of the moment seem to not look at those practical concerns, but more of a case of the will of individual leaders to do what they will.
00:49:27:08 - 00:49:27:19
Aschbacher
I know what
00:49:27:19 - 00:49:47:14
Aschbacher
you are hinting at, and, but let me also, just be crystal clear, and I have made it, also very clear to my decision makers and member states when I prepared the ministerial conference of, November, last year environment, I was making it crystal clear that Europe has to step up, has to reinforce its capabilities.
00:49:47:14 - 00:50:10:11
Aschbacher
It has to become stronger. And therefore more independent and autonomous. And this message has really resonated with the decision makers, and therefore the programs that I have proposed are doing exactly that. So, yes, you are absolutely right. With all the international cooperation we have and, we have very good partners internationally, but it is crystal clear that Europe needs to reinforce its capabilities.
00:50:10:11 - 00:50:13:12
Aschbacher
And this is what we have been funding. And now we have to do it.
00:50:13:16 - 00:50:34:03
Daniel
Yeah. And of course, I was referring to, to Trump, but I mean, I think in Isa terms, you're thinking far beyond into the future about any potential geopolitical crisis that could come up at any point, not just what's happening in the here and now, which is why, you know, I don't refer to any specific geopolitical crisis because who knows what could happen in the future.
00:50:34:06 - 00:50:52:10
Daniel
It must be a difficult situation for you to navigate to kind of predict what might be happening here on Earth, to decide some of these long run projects that take many, many years and a lot of expertise and coordination, a lot of money to put together. As for what requirements those may have in the future.
00:50:52:13 - 00:50:53:09
Aschbacher
No, you're absolutely right.
00:50:53:09 - 00:51:14:00
Aschbacher
I mean, this is, it's always complex to lead to a large organization. We, having 23 member states, a large budget, 6000 people in, in our workforce. And to navigate, in this geopolitical context, and not only think of what is needed tomorrow, but how does the world look like in five years? In ten years?
00:51:14:02 - 00:51:33:24
Aschbacher
Because space projects do need a timeframe of ten years or even beyond in order to plan, build up and therefore use them. Take the space station as a good example. The space station has been initiated 25 years ago. And is still running for another couple of years. So it's a multi dichter investment that you are making there.
00:51:34:01 - 00:51:52:07
Aschbacher
So you have to always imagine and this is something I enjoy intellectually. But of course I discuss a lot with very smart people. You know, imagine the world in in the year 2040 because this is where we should go in order to build up the infrastructure that we need in order to make sure that in 2040 we are ready.
00:51:52:09 - 00:52:12:09
Aschbacher
But of course, making sure that while we build up the the vision for 2040, we make sure that today's needs are met and we go into this direction in order to be well positioned. And strengthen Europe, through our activities that we do it because what I really want to achieve through the European Space Agency is to elevate the future of Europe through space.
00:52:12:15 - 00:52:49:01
Aschbacher
That means to really bring a positive spirit. Also because that is much needed also in Europe these days, but also use space technology, which is so fundamental for many domains of daily life, as a means and as a, as a technology that serves many other disciplines, from energy to transport to, to health, and many other domains which are so fundamental for everyone to use this technology and serve our citizens with the technology, but also make sure that we have a competitive advantage and that we are on the world market leading, sometimes even being the best, because of the technologies that we
00:52:49:01 - 00:52:49:14
Aschbacher
apply.
00:52:49:16 - 00:53:01:24
Daniel
So I want to talk about launch capability, but, I mean, I'll, I'll move on to Arianna specifically in a second. But first of all, what does a launch capability for Europe need to fulfill? What are the requirements?
00:53:01:24 - 00:53:09:00
Aschbacher
In fact, this is exactly what we are debating. Also, what do we need to date and what do we need in five years and ten years from today?
00:53:09:05 - 00:53:31:05
Aschbacher
So today we have what we need. We have Ariane six, which is a heavy lifter launcher for Europe. I took a bit of time to get it on the launchpad, but now it is extremely successful. Actually, it has been the fastest ramp up of any heavy lift launcher that we achieved without M6. We had the the inaugural flight in July 2024.
00:53:31:11 - 00:53:49:21
Aschbacher
We have now had five flights. December was the last one. The next one is coming up, very soon. For the first five flights, it took us 17 months. If you take other rockets, take Falcon nine, for example. It took 32 months to come to flight number five or other ones. Also, our own predecessor, Ariane five.
00:53:49:23 - 00:54:12:07
Aschbacher
It took much longer, to get to five flights. What does this mean? Of course, it shows that the engineering of the of this launcher, which is very complex, has been done very well because after the first flight, which was successful and this is by no means, granted, there were very little adjustments needed to really refine them, have to soak and fly the third flight and so on.
00:54:12:12 - 00:54:33:12
Aschbacher
And this shows that the, the engineering itself is, is quite skilled and in described. Excellent. Very proud actually of this. Ramp up speed, which is which is good, which is very good, but it shows that Europe has the capability. Yes. Of course. The Ariane six rocket is not reusable. And this is, of course, the future, difference to Falcon nine.
00:54:33:18 - 00:54:56:17
Aschbacher
But, we have already decided two years ago to create reusable, rockets or, launchers in Europe. And that's where we initiated, through a decision by all member states to have the next launcher after Ariane six. Not the same type of launcher as we have created now, but done completely differently where we give industry the initiative, they are very agile, very fast.
00:54:56:19 - 00:55:33:10
Aschbacher
They also acquiring funds from the private sector that they define and they develop a rocket that they think is most suitable. We are here to anchor customer. We will pay launch services from those companies so they know they can rely on us. We help in the development of technologies. We have a lot of building blocks of, technology development which we have, which can be utilized, but also in case of trouble, we step in and help resolving some of the issues, but also, along the way, we, we advise technically, and of course, we evaluate and we certify, the, the progress that is being made.
00:55:33:10 - 00:55:43:05
Aschbacher
So yes, we have now a completely new, way of getting the next generation of launches initiated. It will take time, but I'm really looking forward to this evolution that we are seeing
00:55:43:05 - 00:55:43:13
Aschbacher
right now.
00:55:43:16 - 00:55:57:06
Daniel
But then your pledge is that, the next launch capability, next, next launch program for Europe will be competitive directly with the next version that comes off to Falcon nine. In the US.
00:55:57:13 - 00:56:19:05
Aschbacher
Absolutely. Of course, this is exactly what we want to, to achieve, to have for a very competitive launcher. I should probably remind all the, the viewers and listeners that about ten years ago, your head, leading position, we start in five, in the launch capability of, this year is now has to be it has to be regained and reestablished.
00:56:19:07 - 00:56:25:06
Aschbacher
And yes, sir, in the future, we are working to have competitive launches not only within Europe but at the global
00:56:26:03 - 00:56:48:12
Daniel
I want to talk about, iris squared. So, it's meant to be Europe's secure connectivity. Answer. It is, maybe you could explain in a second how it's organized a little bit differently. It's not just a pure. It's a project. It's an EU project. It's kind of like I would say Starlink, but for secure government communication, perhaps you could put it that way.
00:56:48:14 - 00:56:51:13
Daniel
What vulnerabilities are you designing it around?
00:56:51:13 - 00:57:03:03
Aschbacher
Yeah. So I think you described it very well. It is really, for secure connective among government or government users first and foremost. But it will also have, a commercial component.
00:57:03:05 - 00:57:24:21
Aschbacher
So this is, being developed right now. The leadership here is with the European Union. But we are providing technical support. We develop technologies, and of course, we support web, necessary to make this happen. But also it is driven by a commercial consortium called Space Visor, which is, uniting three telecom operators who are in charge of, of the Space consortium.
00:57:24:21 - 00:57:42:12
Aschbacher
So it's done a bit differently. But to me, just mentioned one point in terms of, catching up, because quite often it is said, you know, we have to, catch up and be fast. Yes, absolutely. We have to accelerate it. And this is, this is exactly what we need to do today. We don't have time to lose.
00:57:42:14 - 00:58:07:08
Aschbacher
And time is much more precious today than it used to be. But, Europe will be capable of having a very competitive system once it is in place. And it will be another few years until this, this operation. Let me take the example of, navigation and navigation. In the 80s, in the United States, the system was, developed and made available worldwide or also Europe.
00:58:07:10 - 00:58:32:05
Aschbacher
Was a good user of, the chips signal still today is but Europe decided in the 90s that that Europe needs its own navigation system, which is, you but know called Galileo. And the Galileo system now built up over a few decades, over 30 years. Last year, we celebrated 30 years of Galileo. Is today the most precise, system in terms of navigation
00:58:32:16 - 00:58:48:06
Daniel
So. So the point of making, Europe's own system was so that we wouldn't be vulnerable if the other systems, got switched off. The Russian won, the, the US won, and so I imagine, Irish squared is filling that kind of gap for secure government communications in.
00:58:48:06 - 00:58:48:15
Aschbacher
Europe
00:58:48:15 - 00:58:51:24
Aschbacher
That's exactly the same. Maybe just A112 message.
00:58:51:24 - 00:59:12:24
Aschbacher
I would like to leave you number one. Europe has been catching up with a 15 year delay to, to establish and develop the best system in the world, at least with the highest accuracy. Number one. Number two. Europe works best when the institutions work well together. The European Commission, the European Space Agency, obviously, all of us driven by the member states.
00:59:12:24 - 00:59:19:06
Aschbacher
But with industry we really have created something quite unique. And, when Europe works together, we can be really strong.
00:59:19:13 - 00:59:39:03
Daniel
And so, Iris is not intended to be accessible by the public. Yet many people in Europe now use Starlink to access the internet in rural areas. Or let's say if there is a blackout in a particular area, they'll be able to access internet via satellite that way. How vulnerable would Europe be if Starlink shut down overnight?
00:59:39:03 - 00:59:48:11
Aschbacher
I mean, just one small, comment on, Irish Square out of square will also have a commercial component. So it will also. So this is the consortium specifies
00:59:48:15 - 00:59:51:16
Daniel
But only only for companies to, to be involved with or also the
00:59:51:16 - 00:59:55:20
Aschbacher
on their business model. I mean this probably not yet fully settled, but there is a commercial component.
00:59:55:20 - 01:00:20:17
Aschbacher
Of course one part is government that service. This is the primary, reason and course, but there will also be commercial usage to do, to companies, but also possibly to private citizens yet to be identified. And I would say done by, by this commercial company, which is now building up the system. So your question was, what happens if Starlink would be shut off?
01:00:20:19 - 01:00:37:02
Aschbacher
We have an alternative. It's called OneWeb. Run by Eutelsat. And it is doing I would say it's smaller scale and not as, as powerful in the center of, of, telecom capabilities, the speed and, and
01:00:37:11 - 01:00:48:07
Daniel
But that seems like a weakness then, doesn't it? If we don't have something at that level for the general public yet? I mean, like you said, it could be determined, something with Irish, but that's not in your purview.
01:00:48:07 - 01:00:58:13
Aschbacher
so I, I disgrace is being built up right now is not yet existing, but what exists is, OneWeb, which is, which is the constellation which actually is the next,
01:00:58:19 - 01:01:21:18
Aschbacher
the next one or the other alternative, after, Starlink. So, yes, we have, this is a commercially run, service that is being in operations in. So if you. Yes. And they're building further up, deploying it up further, they're now, they are now developing, several hundred new satellites to complement the constellation and replace some of the, of the old satellites.
01:01:21:18 - 01:01:39:05
Aschbacher
So just this is a constellation that is working, as I say, not as so many satellites are. Starlink. Starlink has 9000 satellites, roughly, and keeps increasing. In this case, we have, six, 700 satellites, but it is providing, secure communication, for those services that are
01:01:39:05 - 01:01:39:18
Aschbacher
required.
01:01:39:20 - 01:01:58:17
Daniel
Okay. So I want to ask you just one last question. And that is, by the end of your time in office, which could be 2029 or, who knows, it could be extended. How will you have changed your space industry and capabilities compared to where you started? What would look like a success by the end of your time in office, and what would look like failure?
01:01:58:17 - 01:02:02:10
Aschbacher
a bit more than halfway through my mandate, I started in 21.
01:02:02:12 - 01:02:30:19
Aschbacher
My term runs until 29. I think we have done a lot already, in changing the way how space in Europe is being developed. We have completely, converted and transformed the space ecosystem. With NASA as an agency, we have become much faster. For example, time to contract. I've reduced by 50% already. I will work on further simplification and, speeding up of our processes and, and way of interacting with industry and member states.
01:02:30:19 - 01:02:53:02
Aschbacher
So this is a priority that we transform ourselves, but also transform, the ecosystem in Europe, how industry works, how we work with industry, how we interact with member states because there's so much happening. Space has become so strategic, so important, so commercially interesting that we have to, to really change gears literally and, and work very differently.
01:02:53:02 - 01:03:09:12
Aschbacher
So by 2029, I really hope to have a, a very robust, space industry in Europe, much stronger than today. An increase of budgets that is much higher compared to the level today, so that our companies are flourishing, succeeding, and really develop some of the best space infrastructure in
01:03:09:12 - 01:03:09:19
Aschbacher
the world.
01:03:10:00 - 01:03:15:01
Daniel
And we'll definitely be watching closely what happens in the near future. Thank you very much for your time today. Here.
01:03:17:02 - 01:03:19:08
Kassandra
That's it for another episode of The Dip.
01:03:19:08 - 01:03:30:14
Daniel
And if you've got all your questions and comments and stuff that you want to send to us, you know what to do. You can write them under our videos on YouTube, or you can even send them to the dip@dw.com.
01:03:30:14 - 01:03:35:03
Kassandra
And that's right, we'll be back same time, same place. Until then, thanks for checking out the dip.
01:03:35:10 - 01:03:38:16
Daniel
See? Yeah, thank you very much. Bye bye.